Downtrend may continue in March-April: trade sources Pressure from shipping disruptions, antidumping cases China’s finished steel exports over January-February fell 8% from a year earlier to 15.591 million metric tons, with daily volumes reaching the lowest since July 2024, China Customs data showed on March 10. The daily exports over the first two months averaged 264,254 mt, falling 27.5% from December 2025 to the lowest level since July 2024.

Some trading sources said they expect steel exports to fall further, at least in March and April, due to disrupted shipping routes to the Middle East, rising antidumping cases against

Chinese steel, and China’s strengthened measures to crack down on non-VAT trades. In January-February, China’s finished steel imports reached 827,000 mt, down 21.7% year over year, the customs data showed.

The daily imports over the two months also fell by 16% from December 2025 to 14,017 mt.

As a result, China’s net finished steel exports in January February fell by 7.2%, or 1.15 million mt, year over year to 14.764 million mt.

Some China-based traders said the significant retreat in Chinese steel exports during January and February was actually within expectations after an export spike in December, as people tried to finish customs clearance by the year’s end to avoid any hassles with the implementation of export licensing on Jan. 1.

China reintroduced export licenses for steel products in January in order to crack down on non-VAT trades. Several

Chinese traders said non-VAT trades contributed heavily to the surge in 2025 steel exports due to their lower prices.

“The Non-VAT trades have now dropped significantly, which, at least in the short term, may continue to weigh on the export  volume,” a Chinese trading source said.